Future Trends in Cancer Care 2011-2021

by Don Jewler, Director of Communications, ACCC

The ride may get bumpy, says Becca Booi, PhD, in her recent Oncology Issues forecast about cancer care over the next decade. I urge you to read her prognostication and suggestions as to how cancer programs can best take advantage of growth opportunities.

“Multiple forces are exerting pressure on oncology care delivery,” Booi says. Payment and policy decisions, such as healthcare reform, promise to expand the number of insured patients and improve access to care, while new technologies are expected to facilitate treatment in the outpatient setting.

And then there are the aging baby boomers.

Taking into account population growth alone, demand for inpatient cancer services would be expected to grow at 21 percent over the next 10 years, says Booi. However, taking into account additional factors, she forecasts more moderate inpatient cancer services growth totaling only 7 percent over this time frame. Why? Back to new technologies. Innovation will continue to shift care delivery to the outpatient setting. As an example, she cites early oncology medical home models, which bring together case management, patient education, and IT capabilities to improve care coordination, which in turn may dramatically reduce the number of chemotherapy patients that present at the ED or are admitted to the hospital with chemotherapy-related side effects.

Demand for outpatient cancer services is projected to grow dramatically—a 38 percent increase in outpatient cancer service volumes from 2011-2021, driven in part by increased availability of “previvor” services for high-risk patients (e.g., genetic counseling and testing) and increased use of advanced imaging modalities, such as CT, MRI, and PET in the diagnosis, staging, and monitoring of cancer patients. Two particular areas of strong projected growth over the next ten years are stereotactic body radiation therapy and interventional oncology, such as radiofrequency ablation (RFA), cyroablation, and embolization, which offer strong growth opportunities with both clinical and programmatic benefits.

So, how can cancer programs best navigate the ride and capture future demand?

Foremost, says Booi, combine high-tech and high-touch offerings with seamless, coordinated care across the continuum. Identify the appropriate strategies for your individual market to maximum your community cancer center’s growth potential. And communicate value through marketing and education.